Land use changes in Canterbury

With close to 100 years of history in Waitaha Canterbury, Davis Ogilvie has seen many land use changes and we predict more change coming. Here we discuss what is likely to happen over the next 25 years, and what will drive the changes.

Land use in Canterbury, New Zealand, has undergone significant changes over the years. Davis Ogilvie for close to a century has been present, and in most cases hands on, in the planning, surveying and engineering required for these changes to occur. Based upon our collective experience as well as conversations with our clients (a mix of private landowners as well as central and local government) we see further change coming for our Canterbury’s land.

Let us look back, before looking forward.

In the last 100 years Canterbury’s land was primarily used for sheep and beef farming, after the bush was cleared. However, since the 1980s, there has been a shift towards more intensive agricultural practices, including dairy farming. This change has been driven by economic factors and the demand for dairy products.

The growth of urban areas, particularly around Christchurch, has led to the conversion of rural land into residential and commercial zones. Some of this urban sprawl has been on highly productive soil and on areas previously used for horticulture and other intensive agricultural activities. This urban sprawl has seen significant population growth in the Selwyn District and North Canterbury, as commuter towns grow to support Christchurch. The desire to relocate to ‘good ground’ post the 2010/11 earthquakes has also been an important driver in the urban sprawl.

The introduction and expansion of irrigation has transformed large areas into highly productive agricultural zones. This has enabled more diverse cropping and has led to a significant increase in dairy farming. Since the 1990’s there has been a 12-fold increase in the number of dairy cows on the Canterbury Plains. However there has been growing awareness and concern about the environmental impacts of intensive farming, such as water quality and soil health. This has led to initiatives aimed at sustainable land management practices.

Changes in land use have also been influenced by economic conditions and government policies. For example, the global financial crisis in 2008 affected land values and farming practices.

These trends reflect the dynamic nature of land use in Canterbury, shaped by economic, environmental and social factors over time.

Looking forward to 2050 …what are we likely to see?

Increased urbanisation

Urban areas, especially around Christchurch, are expected to continue expanding. This will likely lead to more rural land being converted into residential and commercial zones. More than 25,000 new homes have recently been approved for development in the Selwyn and Waimakariri Districts. Additionally, driven by changes in how different generations live, the growth of our tertiary institutions and expats returning, housing affordability and an aging population we believe there will be further demand for inner city living and intergenerational living arrangements. So, more intensification in established residential areas.

John Cochran, Principal Surveyor explains.

“Where and how kiwis live will continue to evolve. With more demand on affordability for first home buyers’ higher density intensification will increase but there will always be demand for the ¼ acre or similar. Either way, smarter and more sustainable solutions for infrastructure will be at the forefront of our skills.”

Shift in agricultural practices, water use and irrigation and technological advancements

Many agri industry experts predict a future shift from traditional dairy farming to more diverse and sustainable agricultural practices. This change could be driven by economic factors, access to capital, climate suitability and new regulations. The renewal of water use consents, farming consents and nutrient limits pose challenges for traditional farming practices and could significantly impact future land use. New consent conditions under the National Policy Statement for Fresh Water Management might alter the feasibility of certain land uses, especially on certain soil types. Advances in agricultural technology and practices are expected to also play a significant role in shaping future land use. This includes precision farming, improved irrigation techniques, the adoption of new crop varieties and increased use of feed pad and feed barns.

“Change is the only certainty in New Zealand agriculture – in coming years I expect Canterbury’s farmers and food producers will face increased challenges due to increased customer demands, tighter regulations and industry control regulatory changes. I also think we’ll see a requirement to further mitigate environmental effects as well as evolving regulations. Farmers and the primary sector have always adapted to changing consumer trends,” says Ian Lloyd, Principal Water Engineer.

Environmental sustainability

There will likely be a stronger focus on sustainable land use practices to address environmental concerns such as water quality, soil health issues and climate change challenges. This could involve more regenerative farming practices, more conservation efforts (large scale tree planting/ wetland reestablishment), as well as land remediation.

“Twenty-five years ago, when I began studying environmental science, climate change was an issue that seemed like a distant problem. Now we’re experiencing increased sea levels and shifts in weather patterns that are more than what was predicted. These changes are already having an impact on contaminated sites and approximately 2000 closed landfills in New Zealand. Poor choices made over 50 years ago based on insufficient data or knowledge has resulted in environmental problems that need to be solved. With more robust planning, and by incorporating sustainable development into our urban and rural development choices, we will not leave legacy issues for the next generation to fix,” says Gareth Oddy, Technical Director, Environmental Scientist.

Adaptation to climate volatility

More frequent and severe droughts, warmer temperatures, increased flooding and erosion, sea level rise, rising groundwater, salination and more storm surges are predicted. As such there will have to be changes in land use beyond just agriculture. A considerable proportion of Canterbury’s 670 000 residents live near to a river, large water body or directly on the coast. Additionally, our aging infrastructure is also largely based here. Management tools such as stopbanks, beach renourishment and sea walls have traditionally been used to protect communities and infrastructure. However, we will continue to see, increased use of nature-based solutions such as managed retreat and coastal wetlands; which leverage and work with natural ecosystems to provide increased resilience, climate mitigation and environmental co-benefits.

Sophie South, Principal Civil Engineer, adds.

“Our work in Washdyke, South Canterbury has highlighted the coastal hazards along the Seadown coastline and their ongoing impact on productive farmland, critical infrastructure and ecosystems including the Waitarakao Lagoon. Councils and communities need to work together to establish adaptive, long-term plans to protect what they value.”

—

Davis Ogilvie (DO) is a multidisciplinary consultancy that provides comprehensive engineering, surveying and planning services, as well as specialist expertise in civil, geotechnical and structural engineering, resource management and environmental sciences.

With a legacy of over 90 years, we have a wealth of local knowledge and experience, with South Island offices in Christchurch, Nelson, Greymouth, and Timaru. Whether it is a multidisciplinary or a standalone project, we can help.

From dirt to development, resilience to recovery, DO provides collaborative efficient solutions. DO delivers.